Thursday, December 8, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2207.42.  Holding above is bullish...
  • Friday bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Heh heh - wow I'm sure glad last night I wrote that I wasn't expecting a major drop on Wednesday because instead we got a major pop with the Dow up nearly 300 points to close at session highs on a tall green marubozu.  This resolved two weeks of consolidation to the up side in a big way.  Is there more to come?  Let's take a look.

The technicals

The VIX:  Wednesday was one of those odd days when the VIX rose along with the rest of the market, up 3.65% on a bullish engulfing pattern. That doesn't bode well for the market.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:43 AM EST with ES up 012%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2207.42 to 2228.25.   Once again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463
December   1      1       3           0       0.500     -24

     And the winner is...

Aside from quite a long stretch of overboughtedness and a VIX that's showing signs of wanting to go higher, there are no bearish candlesticks in sight tonight so I can't really call Thursday lower.  Now I may live to regret it by going against the VIX but it's also ill-advised to fight the tape and right now the tape is going up so I'll just call Thursday higher and see what happens.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.