Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2175.33.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Recap

Last night I mentioned that a reversal was on the horizon but it didn't really look like it was due Tuesday.  Well Mr. Market had other ideas and the Dow popped 108 points, its biggest move since August 5th.  That confirmed all of Friday's spinning tops but all it really did was deposit us right back in the center of the month-long trading range.  As the Dog Days of August bark to a close we check the charts for clues to Tuesday.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are flat at 12:39 AM EDT with ES dead even.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2170.92 to 2175.33.  That still leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       6           0       0.000     120


     And the winner is...

With the futures going nowhere in the overnight, the only real guidance we have tonight comes from the VIX which after three days testing its upper BB finally had enough and put in a bearish engulfing candle Monday along with a bearish stochastic crossover.  However, the Dow and trans look only vaguely bullish and one up-day doth not a trend make.  So yet again I'm going to sit on my hands and call Tuesday uncertain.  We're living in funny times.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.