Friday, February 19, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade..  .
Recap

Villars-vintage-swiss-ski-travel-poster-repro-12x18 While the market actually was higher a fair amount of time on Thursday, a late afternoon sell-off torpedoed my call for a higher close though the damage was limited to just a 40 point frop in the Dow.  Tonight we're doing another Night Owl Lite.  I had a bunch of unrelated Real Life (TM) stuff going on and wasn't able to spend my usual amount of time on the markets.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1910.75 to 1920.42.  That leaves ES below its new pivot for a change, though it's making a strong comeback in the overnight as I write.  It's bearish for now, but that might change pretty soon.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   6      2       3           2       0.800     645



     And the winner is...

Tonight we're at something of a crossroads.  The VIX was down on a day the rest of the market was down too, an unusual situation.  The Dow hit its upper BB and ended with a bearish dark cloud cover.  ES also put in a dark cloud cover but is actually higher in the overnight and mounting an attack on the pivot.  This is all perhaps indicative of an upcoming options expiration so I'll just have to leave it at that and call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!


YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight - I had no time today to look for decent entries.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader:sold ES position at 16,450.  .
Recap

Villars-vintage-swiss-ski-travel-poster-repro-12x18After a big two-day run I was worried that the market might not be able to make it three in a row.  Turns out there was nothing to be afraid of as Mr. Market just kept right on partying like it was  2003, or 1999, or one of those years.  That makes the first time this year we've managed three in a row higher and establishes a new rising RTC.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow rang the gong on Wednesday with another tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  The indicators all continue to march higher towards overbought but are not there yet.  The only note of caution here is that we're now right at resistance from last months' highs.  Can the Dow push past that?  Give that we're a lot less overbought now than then, it wouldn't surprise me.  I will add briefly that the Dow daily chart now looks to have put in a nice double bottom.

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX continued in as steep a descending RTC as I've ever seen (Pearson's = 0.999) with its third gap-down day in a row, this one good for another 7.476% lower.  And that still only leaves the indicators halfway between overbought and oversold so there are no bullish signs at all on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EST with ES up 0.26%.  ES had another stellar day on Wednesday climbing back up to 1922.75 in a tall green near-marubozu to make it three up in a row for the first time since last December.  That leaves it just short of January resistance at 1931 with indicators that have now gone overbought.  But the new overnight just continues motoring higher so with the upper BB now at1945.52, it's not out of the question that we test that level or near it on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1882.17 to 1910.75.  Once again, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar ($USDUPX) daily
Dollar index:   Last night I said we should "[l]ook for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday."  And that's just what the dollar did, trading right up to that level before falling back.  The result was an inverted hammer and a bearish dark cloud cover.  Though indicators are only recently off oversold, this chart now looks more bearish than bullish, despite a recent descending RTC exit.  Check it out:

Euro:  After a big drop Tuesday the euro found support at 1.1146 on Wednesday with a small doji star.  But the indicators still aren't oversold and the new overnight has resumed the downtrend making it look like there's a chance of another down day for the euro on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally on Wednesday the trans pretty much copied the Dow but did even better by trading entirely above their upper BB for a 1.62% pop.  That sent them overbought though there's still no sign of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this is only a yellow caution light.  I can't call this chart lower form here just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   6      1       3           2       0.889     685




     And the winner is...

For the first time this year we have a trending market.  And as nervous as it makes me because it seems that any attempts at a rally have fallen flat lately, I see no bearish signs in the charts tonight.  And we're not even sufficiently overbought to make a bearish call on that basis.  So I guess all that leaves is to call Thursday higher.  This is, after all, a technical blog.

YM Futures Trader

Tonight we finally exit this trade at 16,450 for s scant 16 point profit.  This was a good example of using the BASH algorithm - Buy Anywhere, Sell Higher.  I had bad timing entering it, and after a short pop watched it sink relentlessly until I was way underwater on this trade.  But rather than giving all my money to the bots I held on and took the heat.  And whadaya know about that - it eventually came back and we didn't have to take a massive loss after all.  And yes yes, I know all the arguments - you put your money at risk for a long time for a small reward, etc.  But that's better than taking a big loss after a short time, no?  Now it's still possible YM could move higher still in the short term, but I'm now tired of this particular trade and after three big up-days I dont' want to press my luck so I'm just cutting it free.

  SLD    1    false    YM    MAR16 Futures     16450    USD    ECBOT    20:24:53  

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Wednesday stock market foreast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 1882.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .
Recap

Villars-vintage-swiss-ski-travel-poster-repro-12x18Last night the futures were telegraphing Tuesday's move from a mile away and we indeed got a nice broad-based rally for our troubles.  This changes the chart picture considerably so let's mosey on over and take a gander at which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday, the Dow confirmed Thursday's hammer that just tested its lower BB and on Tuesday we got the payoff in the form of a bib 1.39% gap-up green marubozu.  That was enough to just push the indicators all off oversold and nicely confirm a stochastic bullish crossover.  And we also got an exit of the latest descending RTC for a bullish setup.  What's not to like?

The VIX:  Similarly, the VIX confirmed its own recent technical trend by dropping another 5% on Tuesday.  That sent its indicators just off of overbought and confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this chart just looks continued lower for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EST with ES down 0.16%.It is quite unusual for ES to gap up on the daily chart and yet that's what happened on Tuesday as ES put in a tall green gap-up marubozu to reclaim 1889.  That sent all the indicators higher off of oversold with the stochastic in full-on bullish crossover mode.  However, the new overnight seems to be equivocating a bit, something that is perhaps to be expected.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1847.17 to 1882.17. And again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   On Tuesday the dollar had a monster day with a moonshot gap-up rocket for nearly one percent stopped only by its 200 day MA.  And even that only barely sent the indicators off oversold while completing a bullish stochastic crossover.  Look for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday.

Euro:  And similarly, the euro came to a definitive end of its two week-long rising RTC on Tuesday with a big dump all the way back to 1.11515 to exit the rising RTC for a bearish crossover.  That also sent the indicators continuing lower towards oversold.  There's nothing bullish about this chart and in fact the new overnight is continuing lower making me think the euro closes lower on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans were pretty much the same story as the Dow on Tuesday so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   6      1       3           1       0.875     685



     And the winner is...

There are really no bearish signs on any of the charts tonight.  However, the market has run hard for two days in a row now, and that's as long a winning streak as we've had all year so far.  And it's pretty common to take a pause after large moves like this.  Still, in the absence of any negative technicals, I hesitate to come right out with a bearish call.  So with ES now in close proximity to its new pivot, it seems like a good time for another conditional call: if ES can remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it falls through, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 1880.08.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .
Recap

Yowza!  Last Thursday I hedged on my call by saying that we could close higher only if ES remained above its new pivot.  Despite numerous bullish signs, things were so bad all year til then I didn't want to commit.  Too bad too, because the market went on a giant tear Friday with the Dow gaining 314 points on a tall green marubozu.  And the run doesn't seem over yet.  The new overnight in ES is so much higher that I will skip the charts (which are all three days old already anyway) and head right to the bottom line on this one.  No point in doing any detailed analyses on individual charts tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are way higher at 1:48 AM EST with ES up an impressive 1.68%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1824.75 to 1880.08. And even that big move still leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   5      1       3           1       0.857     462




     And the winner is...

Monday night the futures are higher in the overnight than I've ever seen in 10 years of doing this.  Coupled with a bunch of good bullish reversal signs in the other charts, I'm going to throw all caution to the wind and simply call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here